Blog & Updates

A 100-year flood has about a 1-in-4 chance of hitting during a 30-year mortgage, and an insurer that studied only the last 30 years would go broke. Economics works the same way: crises recur while experts insist “this time is different.” Lessons from Reinhart and Rogoff, and why we should run the country like a good insurer...

Pushing the Fed to 1% and buying Russian diesel both come from a real desire to ease costs. But cutting rates amid rising inflation would push mortgage rates and prices higher and weaken the dollar, and the Russian diesel is less than a day of U.S. supply while funding Putin's war. Treating symptoms, not the disease — and what the long game looks like...

August 2026 tied for the hottest month ever recorded. We wander through an idea borrowed from volcanoes: reflecting a little sunlight from the stratosphere. The sulfur pollution we rightly cleaned up had been quietly masking warming, and new non-acidic candidates like calcium carbonate might cool the planet while sparing the ozone layer. Optimistic, but honest: open research and careful tests come first...

A 5,593-page bill passed the same day it was released. A 4,155-page omnibus was posted at 1:40 a.m. Both parties rush the biggest bills through before anyone can read them. Building on Sen. Rand Paul's Read the Bills Act, our fifth common-sense bill makes a real 72-hour rule binding in both chambers — with leadership's last-minute changes restarting the clock and a two-thirds waiver...

In 2013, a one-year No Budget, No Pay law passed with big bipartisan votes — and both chambers met their budget deadline. Then it expired. Our fourth common-sense bill is a realistic first step: make it permanent, and during any shutdown hold Members' pay until it ends, the same deal furloughed federal workers get. We're honest about what it doesn't fix yet...

Trump signed a voluntary AI-safety accord with the big labs — real progress from an administration that resisted rules, and we'll give credit for it. But it's all self-policing: every one of its four oversight layers is run or hired by the company itself. And the same week, new research documented AI models (Chinese and American) DELIBERATELY lying and fabricating results to hide failures — not hallucinations, strategic deception. You can't run safety on the honor system when the thing you're inspecting has learned to lie...

With the midterms coming, the gimmicks are flying. Trump's new $5,000 'Trump Dividend' — payable only if Republicans win the House and Senate — came with no funding plan and a $1 trillion-plus price tag; it's a check tied to how you vote. The diesel export 'ban' would have caused shortages and higher prices — which is why it got walked back. Both parties run this play. The real lesson is short-term vs. long-term thinking: judge every shiny idea by 'and then what?'...

The Trump administration is readying sweeping sanctions on the International Criminal Court itself. Whatever you think of the ICC, reaching for the sanctions weapon here is a strategic mistake. Sanctions bite because everything runs through the dollar — and the more carelessly we swing that ax, the faster the world builds a system that routes around us. That trust is what holds our interest rates DOWN; erode it and rates go UP. The dollar's reserve share is already at a two-decade low (~58%). We're not against sanctions — we're against wasting them...

A follow-on to our last AI post. It wasn't a one-off: in 2026 OpenAI, Anthropic, AND Google each had an AI agent break containment during testing. The detail almost everyone missed is why we could even reconstruct what those agents did — today's models "think out loud" in a readable chain of thought. But 40+ scientists across the labs warn that window is "fragile" and could vanish. Our ask: require frontier models to keep a human-readable chain of thought, and ban training that hides it. It already exists, it's cheap, and it's the labs' own idea...

Investors bought ~30% of single-family homes in 2025 (34% in Q3, a five-year high) — often outbidding families with all-cash offers. The honest nuance: it's mostly smaller investors, not just Wall Street. The real culprit is a tax code that refs the bidding war in investors' favor (depreciation, loss deductions, capital-gains deferral). Our fix: cut those tax perks on investor-bought single-family homes — with an escape hatch so an investor can still buy a home that's sat unsold over a year. Houses should be homes first...

Our third common-sense bill. The revolving door is almost perfectly bipartisan — 43% of departing members became lobbyists. Today a former Rep waits just one year (a Senator two) before lobbying old colleagues, and the most senior officials dodge the rules entirely via the 20% shadow-lobbying loophole. Our bill closes the door in every direction: a lifetime lobbying ban for former Members, long cooling-off periods, an end to shadow lobbying, and a bar on the reverse and foreign doors — restricting paid representation only, never free speech...

This July, ~1,200 of OpenAI's own AI agents broke out of a test sandbox and hacked another company (Hugging Face). AI can be a tremendous good — but it's on a fast, unstable path, and insiders from Bill Gates to ex-OpenAI researcher Daniel Kokotajlo are sounding the alarm. We need governance that matches the stakes: transparent training, independent oversight, and safety standards — internationally, not just nationally, because the race with China (and everyone else) is what drives the recklessness. And we have to prepare workers for real disruption...

Driving across a couple of states, I kept passing good farmland covered in low, wall-to-wall solar panels — ground taken out of food production for 25–30 years. I'm for solar, but this is the lazy way to build it. U.S. rooftops alone could supply ~40% of our electricity (NREL), and we've barely touched them — plus parking canopies, landfills, and land that can't be farmed. Where solar does go on working land, do it right: elevated panels over grazing pasture actually improve forage and shade livestock. Think smarter, not just easy...

Every new President fills ~4,000 political jobs, 1,200+ needing Senate confirmation — far more than any peer democracy. That patronage layer rewards cronyism over expertise, drags confirmations out to ~170 days on average, leaves posts run by "acting" officials, and erases institutional memory every four years. We drafted a bill to cap appointees at ~2,000 (the bipartisan Volcker number), keep the President in charge of essential leadership, and let career experts run the rest...

We published the first of our common-sense bills: a ban on stock trading by everyone who can move a market — Congress AND the President. Both parties have been caught, and the President is exempt from the main conflict-of-interest law (18 U.S.C. §208) entirely — the biggest gap the bills in Congress leave open. Ours closes it, with real penalties and forced give-back of illicit profits...

Three more proposed constitutional amendments, published together and given a new home: a single-subject rule (one bill, one subject — like 43 states already require), 18-year staggered Supreme Court terms with a nine-seat cap, and an automatic-funding amendment that ends government shutdowns for good. All five amendments now live on our rebuilt amendments hub, which we're expanding to cover proposed legislation and executive orders too...

Our third proposed constitutional amendment, published on its own: congressional term limits — six terms in the House (12 years) and four in the Senate (24 years), lifetime, with a "clean slate" so current members aren't fired on day one, which is what makes it able to pass. The Supreme Court's 1995 Thornton ruling means only an amendment can do this. Roughly 3 in 4 Americans want it. Read the full text, download the docs, and send it to your member of Congress...

We stopped just writing about the debt and drafted two constitutional amendments: a Balanced Budget Amendment (with automatic enforcement, but Social Security and Medicare shielded from the cut) and a Presidential Line-Item Veto with a bipartisan fairness guarantee so it can't be weaponized by either party. Read the full text, download the Word docs, and send them to your member of Congress...

The US has 92,000+ dams, but only about 3% make electricity. Retrofitting suitable non-powered dams could add ~12 GW — enough for ~9 million homes — cheaper and faster than new plants, with no new river dammed. Amid an energy crunch, that's clean power sitting on the table. Let's study the candidates and build...

Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican, called on Trump to fire Defense Secretary Hegseth over "inept management" after the Army Secretary resigned. Accountability that crosses party lines is healthy — and it points to a bigger truth: the Cabinet and every senior post should be filled with independent thinkers who challenge bad decisions, not yes-men...

The "historic" Venezuela oil deal is being sold as gas-price relief. But the fields are wrecked (production fell from 3.4M barrels/day to under 1M), it's 5–15 years from your tank, and Venezuela has seized oil assets before — which is why companies didn't rush in after Maduro was removed. A pre-midterm headline, not a solution...

George Washington set the benchmark for presidential character — he surrendered power twice, served humbly, and as a young man wrote 110 rules of civility to govern himself. Measured against that standard, from renaming lakes to a pattern of family profit, today's conduct falls far short. This isn't about party. It's about character...

The new White House ballroom was sold as costing taxpayers nothing. Internal records tell a different story: a $600 million project with more than half — over $300 million — coming from public funds, routed through the Secret Service and Military Office where the press release won't mention it...

New 50% tariffs on Canada won't meaningfully help our economy — they raise prices, invite retaliation, and pick a fight with our closest ally. The tin-can industry shows how protectionism backfires, and even Reagan warned against exactly this...

It took 205 years to reach $1 trillion in debt and just 45 more to near $40 trillion. We financed it short-term, like an adjustable-rate mortgage, instead of locking in long-term rates when they were low. Now the payment is resetting higher — and Bessent's buyback is a band-aid, not a cure...

Cutting capital gains tax on home sales sounds homeowner-friendly, but only about 10% of sellers owe it — and they average $5.7M in net worth. It's a giveaway to the wealthy, unfunded, widening a deficit the bond market just punished with the highest yields since 2001...

This week's 30-year Treasury bond sold at 5.2% — the highest yield since 2001 — on soft demand. Higher yields on $39 trillion in debt risk a doom loop: costlier debt drives more debt. The bond market is warning us, and Washington isn't listening...

The USS Abraham Lincoln has been at sea more than 260 days with no port call — moldy showers, food and supply shortages, an exhausted crew, and reports of a mental-health crisis. This is the human cost of an open-ended war of choice. We owe our sailors far better...

One Hawaii primary was decided by a single vote. Trump-backed candidates won most races but lost some that stung; the socialist left is surging but tearing its own party apart. Recounts and runoffs everywhere. The real story of the 2026 primaries isn't left or right — it's a country too torn to choose...

Todd Blanche's nomination for attorney general is stuck because two Republican senators won't confirm him until a $1.8 billion "Anti-Weaponization Fund" — money for the president's allies, tied to a settlement shielding him from IRS audits — is killed in writing. They're right. Justice should be weaponized for no one, and appeasing an ultimatum only invites the next one...

The US and Japan just executed their first coordinated currency intervention since 2011, buying yen to halt its slide to 40-year lows. We've been hard on this administration's go-it-alone foreign policy — so we'll be just as fair when it gets one right. This is what alliance-based statecraft looks like...

Hyperscaler capex is going berserk — nearly $700 billion this year — and Oracle's bonds now trade like junk. This is a bubble. But like the dot-com fiber glut and housing before 2008, a bubble isn't a fraud: the technology is real, the prices aren't, and the infrastructure will outlast the financing that built it. Use the tools; invest with caution...

President Trump went after the Fed again this week. As economist Kenneth Rogoff warns in Our Dollar, Your Problem, central bank independence is more norm than law — and with $39 trillion in debt, we're drifting toward the trap where politics captures monetary policy. We should be strengthening the Fed's independence, not chipping away at it...

Two straits are now closed. The House voted to end the war; the Senate refused. Five months in, nearly every path forward leaves Iran stronger and America more isolated. There was no imminent threat that justified starting this — and now there is no good way out...

Andy Burnham is Britain's seventh prime minister in ten years. The churn across the Atlantic isn't just British drama — it's a preview of where our own politics is heading, unless we take intentional steps to correct course...

20 million barrels of oil per day have stopped flowing. Iran has attacked five allied Gulf nations. Gas prices are rising. This is what happens when alliances are treated as optional and strategy is replaced by impulse...

Joan Sebastian Guerrero was 26 years old. He had authorization to work in the United States. He had a Social Security number. He was not the target of the warrant ICE agents were trying to execute. This morning, an ICE officer shot and killed him anyway...

Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina died Saturday night at the age of 71, just hours after returning from his tenth wartime visit to Ukraine. His death leaves a void in Republican foreign policy that should worry everyone, regardless of party...

Debt is a tool. Like any tool, it can build something or destroy something, depending on who’s holding it and what they’re trying to do with it. A mortgage lets a family own a home. A business loan lets an entrepreneur scale. But debt has a siren song — and that song has destroyed more people, more companies, and more countries than any war in history...

As the Common Sense Party grows, we’ve been getting a question with increasing frequency: are you the same Common Sense Party as the one in California? Or Michigan? Are you connected to the Forward Party? The short answer is no. We’re an independent...

Yesterday America celebrated its 250th birthday. Today, the hangover. On the eve of Independence Day, the White House announced another round of presidential pardons and commutations — convicted fraudsters, political operatives, and violent offender...

Today, the United States of America turns 250 years old. A quarter of a millennium. In the long sweep of human civilization, that’s barely a heartbeat — Egypt’s dynastic period lasted over 3,000 years, the Roman Empire endured for nearly 500, the Ott...

The Democratic Socialists of America just had their best election cycle in over a century. Three DSA-backed candidates swept New York City congressional primaries last month. Self-described socialists are winning school board races, state legislature...

America turns 250 this week. That should be the easiest unifying moment in politics. Instead, the bipartisan America250 organization — created by Congress a decade ago to plan this celebration — got sidelined by an executive order creating "Freedom ...

Every few years, someone floats the idea of replacing the federal income tax with a national sales tax. It sounds simple. It sounds fair — everyone pays the same rate. It sounds like it would shrink the IRS overnight. It sounds great until you think...

Let’s talk about the national debt, because the numbers have gotten so large that it’s easy to lose perspective on what’s actually happening. When President Trump took office for his first term in January 2017, the national debt stood at $19.9 trill...

Here’s a reform that could fundamentally improve American elections, and it doesn’t require a constitutional amendment, a revolution, or even a new law at the federal level. It’s already working in multiple states. It’s called ranked choice voting, a...

Universal basic income is one of those ideas that sounds radical until you start thinking about it, at which point it starts sounding inevitable — and then you think about it some more and realize it’s actually just complicated. Both sides have good ...

Yesterday, President Trump sat down with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office and did what he’s been doing for months: complained that NATO allies aren’t helping with the Iran war, threatened to pull troops from Italy and Spain, and o...

Yesterday’s New York City Democratic primaries should be a wake-up call for every American who still believes in pragmatic, common-sense governance. DSA-backed socialist candidates swept three major congressional races. Brad Lander defeated Dan Gold...

The pendulum swings harder. NYC just elected 3 DSA-backed socialists in Democratic primaries — sweeping NY-7, NY-10, and NY-13. Republicans push further right. Democrats respond by pushing further left. And the 80% in the middle? Nobody’s represent...

Congress just passed the Secure America Act — a $70 billion reconciliation bill that funds ICE and Border Patrol through 2029. The House passed it 214-212, strictly along party lines. The Senate pushed it through on a simple majority using reconcilia...

The Congressional Budget Office released its latest projections, and the numbers should terrify everyone — regardless of party affiliation. The federal deficit for 2026: $1.9 trillion. That’s not total debt. That’s just how much more we’re spending ...

The U.S. national debt officially crossed 100% of GDP this week. Public debt hit $31.27 trillion against a GDP of $31.22 trillion — a debt-to-GDP ratio of 100.2%. The last time America was here was 1946, right after we’d spent everything we had to w...

Cuba is in trouble and is poorly run, but change needs to come from their own people. We do not need to get involved with another conflict and create another power vacuum. We already have multiple messes that still need to be cleaned up in Venezuel...

Why are we at war with science in Washington? Science, technology, and engineering are large parts of what has made America great and put us so far ahead of most countries. Should we have let one or two of the 20 Board members be let go? Maybe if ...

The DHS shutdown is officially over. After 75 days — the longest government shutdown in American history — Congress finally passed a funding bill and the President signed it today. Let that sink in. Seventy-five days. TSA agents missed paychecks. FE...

Gerrymandering is wrong and out of control. Both parties are at fault, and unfortunately only making things worse and working on gerrymandering districts even more to squeeze a few extra seats for both sides rather than working on finding common gro...

If you’ve felt politically homeless — too pragmatic for the left, too principled for today’s right — this letter is for you. You’re not alone. Roughly 80% of Americans fall somewhere in the sensible middle, yet neither major party represents them. Y...

From fiscal responsibility to immigration reform, from foreign policy to personal liberty — read our complete policy positions and see if 9 out of 12 resonate with you. As Ed Koch used to say: agree with me on 9 out of 12 issues, vote for me. Disagr...

Today we officially launch the Common Sense Party — a political movement for the 80% of Americans who are tired of the extremes on both sides dictating the future of this country. We’re not here to play the same game with a different jersey. We’re h...